Finnish Agriculture in 1997

Vuosikatsauksessa luodaan yleiskuva Suomen maataloustuotantoon, hintoihin, kulutukseen, tuloihin sekä nykyiseen maatalouspolitiikkaan hinta- ja tukijärjestelmineen. Myös rakenne-, ympäristö- ja sosiaalipolitiikkaa käydään julkaisussa läpi. EU:n komission Agenda 2000 -esityksen peruslinjat tuodaan esiin niin ikään.The crop of 1997 was in accordance with the long-term trend, despite the cold early part of the summer, which delayed the sowing. After June the weather was hot and the growth was more rapid than usually. The total amount of cereals harvested was 3.8 bill. kg, and this exceeded that of 1996 by 2.7%. The total yield measured as fodder units was 3% higher than in 1996. There was some increase in both the area and the average yields. The area under set-aside decreased by almost 10%. Milk production started to grow in 1997. The quantities produced on farms that continued their production grew considerable, because the number of milk suppliers fell by 1,900. The average yield/cow grew by almost 200 l. In terms of the structural development the high price of milk quotas has been considered problematic, and partly administered quota trade was introduced in 1997. Pigmeat production grew by 5%. The market prices started to rise in June. There was some increase in beef production, too, but the price of beef decreased from the previous year. Poultry meat consumption continued to grow, and the production also grew by almost 10%. The decrease in egg production was not large enough to solve the serious market problems due to oversupply. Both agricultural imports and exports grew in 1997. Dairy products, meat, and cereals were imported more than in the previous year. Cereal imports decreased clearly, but the imports of more highly processed foods grew. There were no major changes in the consumer prices or in the consumption. Cheese consumption started to decrease slightly, which is contrary to the trend in the past few years. The consumption of eggs and pigmeat fell, too. The agricultural income in 1997 was about FIM 6.6 bill., which is about 1% lower than in 1996. The production volume grew, but the agricultural aid declined. The prices of production inputs rose by about 2%, and the producer prices fell a little over 1%. More investments were made in agriculture than for a long time. Investments were encouraged by public aid. In 1997 loans and subsidies were granted for altogether 15,000 projects, and the cost estimates of these totaled FIM 4.2 bill. The aid amounted to over FIM 900 mill. Investment aid was mainly directed to increasing the farm size and environmental investments. The small size of Finnish farms affects their competitiveness on the single market, and environmental aid requires considerable investments in livestock production. The year 1997 did not bring along any major changes in agricultural production or prices of the products. The future of Finnish agriculture involves a great deal of uncertainty. National aid consists of many different measures, and the decision on the continuation of many of these must be decided on in the negotiations before the end of 1999. The proposals of the Commission for a reform of the common agricultural policy are difficult for Finland, where agriculture operates in extremely adverse natural conditions.vokMTT Taloustutkimu

Maatalouden rakennekehitys vuoteen 2008

Maatilojen lukumäärän puolittumista vaikea estää Väheneminen tapahtuu maatalouspolitiikan linjan valinnasta riippuen joko tilakoon nopean kasvun tai tuotannon supistumisen kautta Kilpailukyvyn parantaminen Suomen maataloudessa edellyttää tilakoon kasvua. Sillä voidaan alentaa tuotantokustannuksia ja turvata tuotannon taloudelliset edellytykset. Tilakoon kasvua tarvitaan riippumatta Agenda 2000 -neuvottelujen lopputuloksesta. Tällä hetkellä Suomessa on runsaat 70 000 keskeisimpiin tuotantosuuntiin erikoistunutta tilaa. Maatalouden taloudellisessa tutkimuslaitoksessa valmistuneen tutkimuksen mukaan lukumäärä vähenee alle puoleen nykyisestä vuoteen 2008 mennessä. Väheneminen tapahtuu joko tilakoon kasvun tai tuotannon nopean supistumisen kautta. Tutkimus kohdistuu lähinnä päätoimisen toimeentulon antaviin maatiloihin. Maaseudun pienyritystoiminta ja mahdollisuudet palkkatuloihin ratkaisevat lopulta sen, kuinka suureksi aktiivitilojen lukumäärä muodostuu. Ilman maatalouspolitiikan uudistuksia maataloustulo alenisi lähes 20 % vuosina 1997-2008. Tutkimus osoittaa, että kotimaisen ruuan saatavuus turvataan vain, jos maatilojen koko kasvaa selvästi. Kehityksen jarruttaminen ei kannata, sillä hidas tilakoon kasvu johtaisi pitkällä aikavälillä kilpailukyvyn heikentymiseen, tuotannon ja maataloustulon laskuun ja sitä kautta maatilojen määrän voimakkaaseen vähenemiseen. Maidontuotannon arvioidaan vähenevän 2,1 mrd. kiloon nykyisestä 2,3 mrd. kilosta vuoteen 2008 mennessä. Tällöin keskimääräisen tilakoon tulee kasvaa nykyisestä lähes 15 lehmästä 21 lehmään. Jos Agenda 2000 toteutuisi ilman Suomen maitotaloutta koskevia erityistoimenpiteitä, maitoa tuotettaisiin 1,7 mrd. kg vuonna 2008. Mikäli keskikoko jäisi 18 lehmään vuonna 2008, maidontuotanto vähenisi 1,6 mrd. kiloon jopa nykyisellä hinta- ja tukitasolla. Vaihtoehtoisten hinta- ja tukioletusten vallitessa maitotilojen lukumäärä vähenee nykyisestä 25 000 tilasta 12 000 - 15 000 tilaan. Tuotannon ja tilalukumäärän väheneminen on suurinta Sisä-Suomen alueella. Naudanlihantuotannon arvioidaan vähentyvän nykyisestä 95 milj. kilosta 60-70 milj. kiloon vuoteen 2008 mennessä lehmämäärän vähenemisen ja teuraspainojen alenemisen seurauksena. Kotimaista kulutusta vastaava sianlihan tuotanto voidaan ylläpitää, jos tilakoko kasvaa merkittävästi. Sikatilojen lukumäärä vähenee tällöin alle puoleen nykyisestä. Maatalouden tulotuet muodostavat perustan maataloustuotannon säilymiselle eri alueilla. Tarpeen oleva rakennekehitys edellyttää, että julkisen sektorin varoja ohjataan myös jatkossa sekä maatalouden investointien edistämiseen että tuotannosta luopumisen kirjaamiseen.This study analyses the recent changes in the Finnish farm structures and the need for structural development to the year 2008. It also evaluates the effects of the Agenda 2000 CAP reforms on agricultural production, farmers income, and structural development by assuming different scenarios for the development of factor productivity. The analysis is based on the dynamic regional sector model of Finnish agriculture (DREMFIA). The model treats domestic and foreign products as imperfect substitutes, takes into account the asset-fixity in agriculture, and restricts the short-term changes of production according to the technical and biological constraints. In the model Finland is divided into four main regions and 14 different production regions on the basis of the agricultural support system. The average size of farms has increased and the number of farms has decreased during the first years of the EU membership. The exit of farms has been relatively the fastest in the Northern and Eastern Finland. Good general economic development has encouraged the migration to the growing cities. At the same time, however, some farms have invested heavily, partly because of the extensive investment aid programmes. An important objective of agricultural policy is to rapidly increase the size of farm enterprises in order to improve future competitiveness. The highest investment activity is concentrated to the Southern Finland. The projections of the study show that the rate of technical change and the consequent increase in total factor productivity must be high, if Finland wants to maintain the current production volumes in agriculture. Thus, the trend towards fewer but larger farm enterprises will continue and even increase in many production sectors. The proposed CAP reform will have a minor effect on the total number of farms until 2008, but a great effect on the production volume and farm income. Furthermore, the reform would lower the incentives for productivity growth. A considerable increase in the farm size is needed in order to cut the production costs. Necessary conditions in this process are large investments and sufficient labour mobility, which permits the increase in the farm size and prevents the decrease of average farm incomes.vokMTT Taloustutkimu

Suomen maatalous 1997

Vuosikatsauksessa luodaan yleiskuva Suomen maataloustuotantoon, hintoihin, kulutukseen, tuloihin sekä nykyiseen maatalouspolitiikkaan hinta- ja tukijärjestelmineen. Myös rakenne-, ympäristö- ja sosiaalipolitiikkaa käydään julkaisussa läpi. EU:n komission Agenda 2000 -esityksen peruslinjat tuodaan esiin niin ikään.The crop of 1997 was in accordance with the long-term trend, despite the cold early part of the summer, which delayed the sowing. After June the weather was hot and the growth was more rapid than usually. The total amount of cereals harvested was 3.8 bill. kg, and this exceeded that of 1996 by 2.7%. The total yield measured as fodder units was 3% higher than in 1996. There was some increase in both the area and the average yields. The area under set-aside decreased by almost 10%. Milk production started to grow in 1997. The quantities produced on farms that continued their production grew considerable, because the number of milk suppliers fell by 1,900. The average yield/cow grew by almost 200 l. In terms of the structural development the high price of milk quotas has been considered problematic, and partly administered quota trade was introduced in 1997. Pigmeat production grew by 5%. The market prices started to rise in June. There was some increase in beef production, too, but the price of beef decreased from the previous year. Poultry meat consumption continued to grow, and the production also grew by almost 10%. The decrease in egg production was not large enough to solve the serious market problems due to oversupply. Both agricultural imports and exports grew in 1997. Dairy products, meat, and cereals were imported more than in the previous year. Cereal imports decreased clearly, but the imports of more highly processed foods grew. There were no major changes in the consumer prices or in the consumption. Cheese consumption started to decrease slightly, which is contrary to the trend in the past few years. The consumption of eggs and pigmeat fell, too. The agricultural income in 1997 was about FIM 6.6 bill., which is about 1% lower than in 1996. The production volume grew, but the agricultural aid declined. The prices of production inputs rose by about 2%, and the producer prices fell a little over 1%. More investments were made in agriculture than for a long time. Investments were encouraged by public aid. In 1997 loans and subsidies were granted for altogether 15,000 projects, and the cost estimates of these totaled FIM 4.2 bill. The aid amounted to over FIM 900 mill. Investment aid was mainly directed to increasing the farm size and environmental investments. The small size of Finnish farms affects their competitiveness on the single market, and environmental aid requires considerable investments in livestock production. The year 1997 did not bring along any major changes in agricultural production or prices of the products. The future of Finnish agriculture involves a great deal of uncertainty. National aid consists of many different measures, and the decision on the continuation of many of these must be decided on in the negotiations before the end of 1999. The proposals of the Commission for a reform of the common agricultural policy are difficult for Finland, where agriculture operates in extremely adverse natural conditions.vokMTT Taloustutkimu

Terrestrial laser scanning and pin meter measurements for erosion and roughness assessment in boreal peatland forest ditches

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Combined use of satellite image analysis, land-use statistics, and land-use-specific export coefficients to predict nutrients in drained peatland catchment

Highlights • Nutrient and SS estimations were predicted by comparing different approaches. • Peatland drainage strongly affected TN, TP, and SS loads and concentrations. • Uncertainty in estimates captured 29–90% of measured TN, TP, and SS values. • The uncertainty in export coefficients decreased with catchment size.Maintaining and improving surface water quality requires knowledge of nutrient and sediment loads due to past and future land-use practices, but historical data on land cover and its changes are often lacking. In this study, we tested whether land-use-specific export coefficients can be used together with satellite images (Landsat) and/or regional land-use statistics to estimate riverine nutrient loads and concentrations of total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and suspended solids (SS). The study area, Simojoki (3160 km2) in northern Finland, has been intensively drained for peatland forestry since the 1960s. We used different approaches at multiple sub-catchment scales to simulate TN, TP, and SS export in the Simojoki catchment. The uncertainty in estimates based on specific export coefficients was quantified based on historical land-use changes (derived from Landsat data), and an uncertainty boundary was established for each land-use. The uncertainty boundary captured at least 60% of measured values of TN, TP, and SS loads or concentrations. However, the uncertainty in estimates compared with measured values ranged from 7% to 20% for TN, 0% to 18% for TP, and 13% to 43% for SS for different catchments. Some discrepancy between predicted and measured loads and concentrations was expected, as the method did not account for inter-annual variability in hydrological conditions or river processes. However, combining historical land-use change estimates with simple export coefficients can be a practical approach for evaluating the influence on water quality of historical land-use changes such as peatland drainage for forest establishment

Liettyneiden metsäpurojen kunnostaminen

Tieteen tor

Influence of forest management changes and reuse of peat production areas on water quality in a northern river

In Northern Finland, the most significant land use challenges are related to bioenergy production from peat extraction and forest biomass. Increasing societal demand for bioenergy may increase production rates. However, environmental impacts of peat extraction are of increasing concern, which has led to a decline in production, thereby freeing up these areas for other uses. Using storylines for different societal futures and process-based models (PERSiST and INCA), we simulated the effect of simultaneous land use change and climate change on water quality (phosphorus, nitrogen and suspended sediments concentration). Conversion of peat extraction areas to arable land, together with climate change, may pose a risk for deterioration of ecological status. On the other hand, continuous forestry may have positive impacts on water quality. Suspended sediment concentrations in the river do not exceed water quality requirements for salmonids, but nitrogen concentrations may exceed threshold values especially during high flows. A storyline emphasizing sustainable development in energy pro-duction led to the best outcome in terms of water protection

Hydraulic and physical properties of managed and intact peatlands : application of the van Genuchten-Mualem models to peat soils

Key Points: • Land use such as agriculture and peat extraction alter the physical and hydraulic properties of the peat more strongly than other land uses • The top 30 cm peat depth was most affected by agriculture and peat extraction, as indicated by the bulk density, specific yield, and porosity values • The van Genuchten-Mualem soil water retention model was applied successfully to different layers of peat under different land useUndisturbed peatlands are effective carbon sinks and provide a variety of ecosystem services. However, anthropogenic disturbances, especially land drainage, strongly alter peat soil properties and jeopardize the benefits of peatlands. The effects of disturbances should therefore be assessed and predicted. To support accurate modeling, this study determined the physical and hydraulic properties of intact and disturbed peat samples collected from 59 sites (in total 3,073 samples) in Finland and Norway. The bulk density (BD), porosity, and specific yield (Sy) values obtained indicated that the top layer (0–30 cm depth) at agricultural and peat extraction sites was most affected by land use change. The BD in the top layer at agricultural, peat extraction, and forestry sites was 441%, 140%, and 92% higher, respectively, than that of intact peatlands. Porosity decreased with increased BD, but not linearly. Agricultural and peat extraction sites had the lowest saturated hydraulic conductivity, Sy, and porosity, and the highest BD of the land use options studied. The van Genuchten-Mualem (vGM) soil water retention curve (SWRC) and hydraulic conductivity (K) models proved to be applicable for the peat soils tested, providing values of SWRC, K, and vGM-parameters (α and n) for peat layers (top, middle and bottom) under different land uses. A decrease in peat soil water content of ≥10% reduced the unsaturated K values by two orders of magnitude. This unique data set can be used to improve hydrological modeling in peat-dominated catchments and for fuller integration of peat soils into large-scale hydrological models